Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify. Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to: announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization; announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization; announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or Mandating a specific number of new call-ups. The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives. Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations; permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens; extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, o