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Home / Markets / 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?
Resolved market scorecard

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.2%; a week before, 97.4%. $5K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved February 5, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.2%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

97.4%
30 days before: –

Volume

$5K
1 outcome

HousingPoliticsEconomyEconomic Policy

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$5K
NoWON$5K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-0801-2202-05
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between market creation and January 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable or haven't released the specified data up until the end of the 14th day following resolution time, this market will resolve based on the data published up until that point.

Frequently asked questions

How did "30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?" resolve?
It resolved No around January 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.2% one day before close, 97.4% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$5K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.