What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is <$1.062M at 77.2%, ahead of $1.062M - $1.083M at 17.2%. $41K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
ParclEconomyHousingRecurringreal estate
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| <$1.062M | 77.2% | +2.9 |
| $1.062M - $1.083M | 17.2% | -1.3 |
| $1.083M - $1.104M | 2.3% | -1.3 |
| $1.165M+ | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| $1.125M - $1.146M | 1.7% | -0.2 |
| $1.146M - $1.165M | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| $1.104M - $1.125M | 1.2% | -0.4 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/60)
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, <$1.062M is the favorite at 77.2%, followed by $1.062M - $1.083M at 17.2%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 11, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $41K in total and $215 in the last 24 hours, with about $23K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.