Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↓ 7.00% at 54.5%, ahead of ↑ 7.50% at 38.0%. $120K traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
FinanceFreddie MacEconomyHousing
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↓ 7.00% | 54.5% | +16.0 |
| ↑ 7.50% | 38.0% | +3.0 |
| ↓ 6.75% | 25.5% | 0.0 |
| ↑ 7.75% | 21.5% | +3.0 |
| ↓ 6.50% | 19.5% | -3.5 |
| ↓ 6.25% | 17.0% | -1.0 |
| ↑ 8.00% | 15.5% | -1.0 |
| ↓ 6.00% | 7.0% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 5.90% | 4.7% | +1.3 |
| ↓ 5.50% | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| ↓ 5.70% | 1.4% | +0.8 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↓ 7.00% is the favorite at 54.5%, followed by ↑ 7.50% at 38.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 15, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $120K in total and $451 in the last 24 hours, with about $7K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.