LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
Resolved market scorecard

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 94.5%. $1.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved November 2, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

94.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.5M
1 outcome

TariffsPoliticsChinaTrump PresidencyTrade War

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$1.5M
NoWON$1.5M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-1110-2211-02
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

On October 10, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from China starting November 1 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115351840469973590). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from China goes into effect for any amount of time by November 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from China is in effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?" resolve?
It resolved No around November 1, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 94.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.5M across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.