How did "100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February?" resolve?

It resolved No around January 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.3% one week before and 88.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / 100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February?

Resolved market scorecard

100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February?: result and scorecard

Name: 100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.3%. $210K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved February 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.3%

30 days before: 88.5%

Volume

$210K

1 outcome

Science Bird Flu Pandemics H5N1 Culture

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$210K
No	WON	$210K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Frequently asked questions

How did "100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before February?" resolve?: It resolved No around January 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.3% one week before and 88.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $210K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.