How did "Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?" resolve?

It resolved No around June 30, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.0% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.8%. $65K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved July 1, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 98.0%

Volume

$65K

1 outcome

Israel Turkey Politics Trump Presidency Geopolitics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$65K
No	WON	$65K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkey formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to the United States government by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Turkey's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Turkey must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the Turkish government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Turkey leave NATO by June 30?" resolve?: It resolved No around June 30, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $65K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.