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Home / Markets / Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
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Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.9% (-0.1 pts in 24h). $196K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.9%
No 97.0% · Trade →

24h move

-0.1
pts · 7d +0.3

Volume

$196K
24h $5 · liquidity $14K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

IsraelMiddle EastGeopoliticsIranPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes2.9% -0.1+0.3$196K2.7¢
No97.0% +0.1-0.3$196K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%03-0707-0711-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.9% and No at 97.0%, on $196K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$196K in total and $5 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.