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Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 68.5%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 46.0%. $102K traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

68.5%
June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+14.0
pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$102K
24h $3K · liquidity $24K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

US ElectionPoliticsCalifornia2028 Election

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
June 30, 202768.5% +14.00.0$055.0¢
March 31, 202746.0% -4.50.0$064.0¢
December 31, 202613.0% +2.5-0.5$70K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-2805-0311-06
June 30, 2027March 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 69% risks 69¢ to win 31¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 68.5%, followed by March 31, 2027 at 46.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$102K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $24K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.