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Home / Markets / Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026?
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Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 40.2% (-4.9 pts in 24h). $18 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

40.2%
No 59.8% · Trade →

24h move

-4.9
pts · 7d -10.7

Volume

$18
24h $0 · liquidity $37

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

UFCmmaSports

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes40.2% -4.9-10.7$1879.2¢
No59.8% +4.9+10.7$18–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Francis Ngannou officially participates in a UFC fight by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements of a fight, signing a UFC contract, or participation in exhibitions of any kind will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Only instances where Ngannou officially participates in an official UFC-sanctioned fight will count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 40% risks 40¢ to win 60¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 40.2% and No at 59.8%, on $18 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$18 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $37 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.