UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims): live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço · Thomas Petersen at 61.5%, ahead of Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço · Gabriel Lorenço at 38.5%. $16K traded across 19 markets.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
Markets for this game
| Market | Side A | Side B |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço moneyline | Thomas Petersen 61.5% | Gabriel Lorenço 38.5% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds totals | Over 56.5% | Under 43.5% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? ufc go the distance | Yes 36.5% | No 63.5% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? ufc method of victory | Yes 50.5% | No 49.5% |
| Petersen to win by KO/TKO? ufc method of victory | Yes 34.5% | No 65.5% |
| Lorenço to win by KO/TKO? ufc method of victory | Yes 35.0% | No 65.0% |
| Fight won by submission? ufc method of victory | Yes 29.0% | No 71.0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds totals | Over 70.0% | Under 30.0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds totals | Over 44.0% | Under 56.0% |
| Fight won by decision? ufc method of finish | Yes 40.0% | No 60.0% |
| Ends before Round 2? ufc round of finish | Yes 27.0% | No 73.0% |
| Ends before Round 3? ufc round of finish | Yes 49.0% | No 51.0% |
| Petersen in Round 1 ufc round of victory | Yes 29.0% | No 71.0% |
| Petersen in Round 2 ufc round of victory | Yes 28.0% | No 72.0% |
| Petersen in Round 3 ufc round of victory | Yes 26.5% | No 73.5% |
| Lorenço in Round 1 ufc round of victory | Yes 29.0% | No 71.0% |
| Lorenço in Round 2 ufc round of victory | Yes 27.0% | No 73.0% |
| Lorenço in Round 3 ufc round of victory | Yes 26.5% | No 73.5% |
| Decision or Draw ufc round of victory | Yes 40.0% | No 60.0% |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, scheduled for November 7, 2026. It will resolve to "Gabriel Lorenço" if Gabriel Lorenço is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Thomas Petersen and Gabriel Lorenço at UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, scheduled for November 7, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. "Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 21, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço · Thomas Petersen is the favorite at 61.5%, followed by Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço · Thomas Petersen at 61.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 8, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $16K in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $74K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.