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Home / Markets / Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
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Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Justin Gaethje at 95.4%, ahead of Arman Tsarukyan at 2.6%. $776K traded across 12 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

95.4%
Justin Gaethje · Trade →

24h move

+0.3
pts · 7d +4.8

Volume

$776K
24h $1K · liquidity $74K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

SportsUFCmma

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Justin Gaethje95.4% +0.3+4.8$63K2.6¢
Arman Tsarukyan2.6% -0.9+0.4$55K1.2¢
Ilia Topuria0.1% 0.0-0.5$26K0.1¢
Charles Oliveira0.1% 0.00.0$12K0.1¢
Max Holloway0.1% 0.0-0.1$21K0.1¢
Paddy Pimblett0.1% 0.0-0.1$532K0.1¢
Dan Hooker0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Mateusz Gamrot0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Benoît Saint Denis0.1% 0.00.0$54K0.1¢
Rafael Fiziev0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Renato Moicano0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Mauricio Ruffy0.1% 0.00.0$5K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0506-0611-06
Justin GaethjeArman TsarukyanIlia TopuriaCharles Oliveira

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Justin Gaethje at 95% risks 95¢ to win 5¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Justin Gaethje is the favorite at 95.4%, followed by Arman Tsarukyan at 2.6%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$776K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $74K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.