How did "Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 99.2% one month before.

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Resolved market scorecard

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.8%. $1.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 99.2%

Volume

$1.8M

1 outcome

Bitcoin Economy Crypto World Geopolitics

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$1.8M
No	WON	$1.8M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 99.2% one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.8M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.