What are the odds that Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%, on $5.6M of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$5.6M in total and $104K in the last 24 hours, with about $108K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Live market data

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.5% (-0.3 pts in 24h). $5.6M has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.5%

No 97.5% · Trade →

24h move

-0.3

pts · 7d -0.6

Volume

$5.6M

24h $104K · liquidity $108K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Crypto Culture Crypto Bitcoin Satoshi

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.5%	-0.3	-0.6	$5.6M	0.1¢
No	97.5%	+0.3	+0.6	$5.6M	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%, on $5.6M of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $5.6M in total and $104K in the last 24 hours, with about $108K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.