How did "Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 99.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

Resolved market scorecard

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.8%. $473K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 99.5%

Volume

$473K

1 outcome

World Canada Trump Presidency Trump

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$473K
No	WON	$473K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 99.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $473K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.