What are the odds that Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.2% and No at 97.8%, on $505K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on October 20, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$505K in total and $167 in the last 24 hours, with about $66K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Live market data

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.2% (+0.1 pts in 24h). $505K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.2%

No 97.8% · Trade →

24h move

+0.1

pts · 7d +0.3

Volume

$505K

24h $167 · liquidity $66K

Closes

October 20, 2026

0 days left

Canada World Politics Trump Alberta Referendum

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.2%	+0.1	+0.3	$505K	0.2¢
No	97.8%	-0.1	-0.3	$505K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.2% and No at 97.8%, on $505K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on October 20, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $505K in total and $167 in the last 24 hours, with about $66K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Brantford—Brant South By-Election Winner Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)Scarborough North By-Election Winner Canada Annual Inflation 2026 Next Premier of British Columbia US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?Yorkton—Melville By-Election Winner Bank of Canada Decision in December?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.