How did "Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 98.9% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

Resolved market scorecard

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?: result and scorecard

Name: Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 99.7%. $4.2M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 15, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.7%

30 days before: 98.9%

Volume

$4.2M

1 outcome

Science climate global warming Weather 2025 Predictions

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$4.2M
No	WON	$4.2M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 99.7% one week before and 98.9% one month before.
How much was traded?: $4.2M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.