Resolved market scorecard
Who will Pope Leo XIV meet with in 2025?: result and scorecard
Resolved Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.7%; a week before, 95.7%. $163K traded in total.
Result
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
resolved November 27, 2025
Price 1 day before
98.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
95.7%
30 days before: 89.0%
Volume
$163K
8 outcomes
GeopoliticsNew PopePoliticsworld affairsWorld
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | WON |
| Lula da Silva | WON |
| Donald Trump | LOST |
| Xi Jinping | LOST |
| Vladimir Putin | LOST |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | LOST |
| iShowSpeed | LOST |
| MrBeast | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanLula da SilvaDonald TrumpXi Jinping
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Pope Leo XIV between May 20, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Pope Leo XIV are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Who will Pope Leo XIV meet with in 2025?" resolve?
- It resolved Recep Tayyip Erdoğan around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.7% one day before close, 95.7% one week before and 89.0% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $163K across 8 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.