Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Avengers: Doomsday at 69.5%, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 29.5%. $2.7M traded across 4 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
The OdysseyMoviesCultureSpider-Man
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 69.5% | +6.0 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 29.5% | -8.0 |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Dune: Messiah | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Avengers: Doomsday is the favorite at 69.5%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 29.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2.7M in total and $16K in the last 24 hours, with about $118K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.