Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Toy Story 5 at 87.5%, ahead of Movie B at 50.0%. $76K traded across 21 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
MoviesCultureThe OdysseySpider-Man
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Toy Story 5 | 87.5% | +2.5 |
| Movie B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Movie O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 7.6% | 0.0 |
| Dune: Messiah | 3.6% | +0.1 |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Toy Story 5 is the favorite at 87.5%, followed by Movie B at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $76K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $54K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.