Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Actor F at 50.0%, ahead of Actor G at 50.0%. $291K traded across 44 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AwardsMoviesOscarsCultureOscars 2027
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Actor F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor P | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor Q | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor R | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor S | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor T | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor U | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor V | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor W | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor X | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor Y | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Actor Z | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| John Malkovich | 45.6% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Scott | 18.0% | -1.0 |
| Matt Damon | 15.5% | -2.0 |
| Anthony Ippolito | 10.0% | +0.8 |
| Tom Cruise | 8.0% | -0.5 |
| Timothée Chalamet | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| Robert Pattinson | 2.1% | -0.1 |
| John Turturro | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Gosling | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Jaafar Jackson | 0.4% | -0.4 |
| Jeremy Strong | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Brad Pitt | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Yura Borisov | 0.2% | +0.1 |
| Pedro Pascal | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sebastian Stan | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Adam Driver | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Javier Bardem | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Josh O'Connor | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Robert Aramayo | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Sam Rockwell | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mahershala Ali | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Guy Pearce | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Actor F is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by Actor G at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $291K in total and $163 in the last 24 hours, with about $233K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.