Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is The Odyssey at 85.5%, ahead of Dune: Messiah at 10.1%. $273K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
MoviesCultureAwardsOscarsThe Odyssey
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 85.5% | 0.0 |
| Dune: Messiah | 10.1% | -0.3 |
| Project Hail Mary | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Disclosure Day | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Wuthering Heights | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| The Bride! | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Wild Horse Nine | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| The Social Reckoning | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, The Odyssey is the favorite at 85.5%, followed by Dune: Messiah at 10.1%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $273K in total and $550 in the last 24 hours, with about $93K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.