How did "What continent will next Pope be from?" resolve?

It resolved North America around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 2.9% one day before close, 2.4% one week before and 3.5% one month before.

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What continent will next Pope be from?: result and scorecard

Name: What continent will next Pope be from? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved North America. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 2.9%; a week before, 2.4%. $2.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

North America

resolved May 8, 2025

Price 1 day before

2.9%

Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

2.4%

30 days before: 3.5%

Volume

$2.8M

7 outcomes

Geopolitics Politics catholic Global Elections New Pope

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
North America	WON	$301K
No New Pope in 2025	LOST	$985K
Africa	LOST	$476K
Europe	LOST	$296K
South America	LOST	$268K
Oceania	LOST	$265K
Asia	LOST	$229K

Price history to resolution

North AmericaNo New Pope in 2025AfricaEurope

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 3% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the continent from which the next person announced as the bishop of Rome after Pope Francis is from. The continent where the next Pope was born will be used to determine which continent they are from. If no new pope is announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No new Pope in 2025". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Vatican, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "What continent will next Pope be from?" resolve?: It resolved North America around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 2.9% one day before close, 2.4% one week before and 3.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $2.8M across 7 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.