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Home / Markets / Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Resolved market scorecard

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.4%. $73.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.4%
30 days before: 92.5%

Volume

$73.8M
1 outcome

GeopoliticsPolitics2025 PredictionsUkraineForeign Policy

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$73.8M
NoWON$73.8M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-3007-0101-01
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?" resolve?
It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and 92.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$73.8M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.