LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?
Resolved market scorecard

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 3. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 22.0%; a week before, –. $1.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 3
resolved February 3, 2026

Price 1 day before

22.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.6M
29 outcomes

putinPoliticsWorldzelenskyyDaily Strikes

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 3WON$81K
February 12WON$79K
February 5LOST$194K
February 22LOST$107K
February 7LOST$91K
February 1LOST$79K
February 2LOST$79K
February 13LOST$65K
February 17LOST$65K
February 8LOST$61K
February 6LOST$60K
February 4LOST$60K
February 26LOST$51K
February 15LOST$42K
February 16LOST$39K
February 25LOST$38K
February 14LOST$36K
February 23LOST$35K
February 18LOST$35K
February 19LOST$34K
February 21LOST$33K
March 31LOST$33K
February 20LOST$29K
February 10LOST$26K
February 11LOST$25K
February 24LOST$22K
February 9LOST$22K
February 28LOST$15K
February 27LOST$13K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-2802-1102-26
February 3February 12February 5February 22
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 22% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?" resolve?
It resolved February 3 around February 28, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 22.0% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.6M across 29 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.