Who is favored in "Next UK by-election called by…?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 25.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$2K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $4K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Next UK by-election called by…?

Live market data

Next UK by-election called by…?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Next UK by-election called by…? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31 at 25.0%. $2K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

25.0%

December 31 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$2K

24h $0 · liquidity $4K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

UK Politics Elections United Kingdom Global Elections

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31	25.0%	-0.5	-3.0	$766	6.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 25% risks 25¢ to win 75¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next UK by-election called by…?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 25.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $2K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $4K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.