U.K. Annual Inflation 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 3.5–3.9% at 54.6%, ahead of 3.0–3.4% at 22.5%. $154K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
RecurringMacro IndicatorsCPIUKEconomy
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5–3.9% | 54.6% | +0.1 |
| 3.0–3.4% | 22.5% | +4.5 |
| 4.0-4.4% | 15.4% | -6.9 |
| 2.5–2.9% | 4.3% | -0.3 |
| 4.5%+ | 2.3% | -1.0 |
| 2.0–2.4% | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| 1.0–1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| <1.0% | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| 1.5–1.9% | 0.8% | -1.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "U.K. Annual Inflation 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 3.5–3.9% is the favorite at 54.6%, followed by 3.0–3.4% at 22.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 21, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $154K in total and $604 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.