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Home / Markets / Next UK by-election called by…?
Resolved market scorecard

Next UK by-election called by…?: result and scorecard

Resolved September 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.9%; a week before, 77.5%. $22K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

September 30
resolved September 9, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

77.5%
30 days before: 21.5%

Volume

$22K
2 outcomes

UKPoliticsElectionsUnited KingdomGlobal Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
September 30WON$18K
December 31WON$5K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-2508-1709-09
September 30December 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next UK by-election called by…?" resolve?
It resolved September 30 around January 1, 2027.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 77.5% one week before and 21.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$22K across 2 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.