Resolved market scorecard
Next French Prime Minister: result and scorecard
Resolved Sébastien Lecornu. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 37.0%; a week before, 8.5%. $275K traded in total.
Result
Sébastien Lecornu
resolved September 9, 2025
Price 1 day before
37.0%
Market leaned the wrong way
Price 7 days before
8.5%
30 days before: –
Volume
$275K
39 outcomes
FranceGlobal ElectionsPolitics
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Sébastien Lecornu | WON |
| Election called | LOST |
| No new PM | LOST |
| Jordan Bardella | LOST |
| Éric Lombard | LOST |
| Gérald Darmanin | LOST |
| Lucie Castets | LOST |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | LOST |
| Catherine Vautrin | LOST |
| Xavier Bertrand | LOST |
| David Lisnard | LOST |
| Bruno Retailleau | LOST |
| Pierre Moscovici | LOST |
| Jean Castex | LOST |
| Laurent Wauquiez | LOST |
| Valérie Pécresse | LOST |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | LOST |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | LOST |
| Éric Zemmour | LOST |
| Roland Lescure | LOST |
| Candidate H | LOST |
| Candidate I | LOST |
| Candidate J | LOST |
| Candidate K | LOST |
| Candidate L | LOST |
| Candidate M | LOST |
| Candidate N | LOST |
| Candidate O | LOST |
| Candidate P | LOST |
| Candidate Q | LOST |
| Candidate R | LOST |
| Candidate S | LOST |
| Candidate T | LOST |
| Candidate U | LOST |
| Candidate V | LOST |
| Candidate W | LOST |
| Candidate X | LOST |
| Candidate Y | LOST |
| Other | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Sébastien LecornuElection calledNo new PMJordan Bardella
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 37% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
French Prime Minister François Bayrou called for a vote of confidence in his government on August 25, 2025. The vote is scheduled for September 8, 2025, and Bayrou is expected to lose, as major opposition parties have announced their intention to vote against him. If the confidence vote fails, President Emmanuel Macron will be required to appoint a new prime minister. This is a market on who will be the next Prime Minister of France.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Next French Prime Minister" resolve?
- It resolved Sébastien Lecornu around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 37.0% one day before close, 8.5% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $275K across 39 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.