What are the odds that Negative GDP growth in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.2%, on $34K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$34K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Live market data

Negative GDP growth in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Negative GDP growth in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.8% (0.0 pts in 24h). $34K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.8%

No 97.2% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$34K

24h $0 · liquidity $1K

Closes

January 29, 2027

84 days left

GDP Economy Macro Indicators

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	2.8%	0.0	0.0	$34K	1.6¢
No	97.2%	0.0	0.0	$34K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Negative GDP growth in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.8% and No at 97.2%, on $34K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $34K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.