How did "Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?" resolve?

It resolved Yes around March 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 26.5% one day before close, 25.5% one week before and 56.5% one month before.

Home / Markets / Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Resolved market scorecard

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?: result and scorecard

Name: Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 26.5%; a week before, 25.5%. $241K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved January 3, 2026

Price 1 day before

26.5%

Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

25.5%

30 days before: 56.5%

Volume

$241K

1 outcome

Venezuela World Politics Geopolitics Cuba

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$241K
No	LOST	$241K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 27% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Nicolás Maduro has left Venezuela for any length of time between November 24, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Maduro may have exited Venezuelan airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Venezuela for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Maduro exits Venezuela maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Maduro left Venezuela, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 26.5% one day before close, 25.5% one week before and 56.5% one month before.
How much was traded?: $241K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Venezuela leader end of 2026?Next Venezuelan Presidential Election Winner US military action against Cuba by...?US strike on Colombia by...?Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?Maduro Prison Time?Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.