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LA-05 Republican Primary Winner: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Austin Magee at 12.8%, ahead of Misti Cordell at 12.3%. $72K traded across 7 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

12.8%
Austin Magee · Trade →

24h move

-6.0
pts · 7d +11.3

Volume

$72K
24h $61 · liquidity $43K

Closes

May 17, 2026
0 days left

PrimariesPoliticsLouisiana PrimaryUS ElectionElections

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Austin Magee12.8% -6.0+11.3$3K25.5¢
Misti Cordell12.3% -1.6-13.7$2K24.2¢
Michael Mebruer2.6% 0.0-22.5$2K4.8¢
Rick Edmonds2.4% 0.0+0.9$6K4.2¢
Samuel Wyatt2.1% 0.0+0.7$6K3.7¢
Michael Echols1.7% 0.0-7.6$20K3.0¢
Blake Miguez0.6% 0.0-4.9$33K1.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Austin MageeMisti CordellMichael MebruerRick Edmonds

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Austin Magee at 13% risks 13¢ to win 87¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner"?
As of November 6, 2026, Austin Magee is the favorite at 12.8%, followed by Misti Cordell at 12.3%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on May 17, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$72K in total and $61 in the last 24 hours, with about $43K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.