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Home / Markets / June Inflation US - Annual
Resolved market scorecard

June Inflation US - Annual: result and scorecard

Resolved ≤3.6%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 1.6%; a week before, 1.1%. $871K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

≤3.6%
resolved July 14, 2026

Price 1 day before

1.6%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

1.1%
30 days before: 0.6%

Volume

$871K
12 outcomes

CPIEconomyInflationMacro IndicatorsCPI Release

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
≤3.6%WON$101K
4.0%LOST$145K
3.8%LOST$140K
3.9%LOST$118K
3.7%LOST$95K
4.1%LOST$92K
4.2%LOST$61K
4.3%LOST$40K
4.5%LOST$25K
4.4%LOST$20K
4.6%LOST$17K
≥4.7%LOST$17K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-1106-2707-14
≤3.6%4.0%3.8%3.9%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 2% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

How did "June Inflation US - Annual" resolve?
It resolved ≤3.6% around July 15, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 1.6% one day before close, 1.1% one week before and 0.6% one month before.
How much was traded?
$871K across 12 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.