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Home / Markets / July Inflation China - Annual
Resolved market scorecard

July Inflation China - Annual: result and scorecard

Resolved ≤0.6%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.8%; a week before, 7.4%. $40K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

≤0.6%
resolved August 11, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

7.4%
30 days before: –

Volume

$40K
5 outcomes

CPIChinaEconomyInflationMacro Indicators

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
≤0.6%WON$5K
0.7% - 0.8%LOST$15K
0.9% - 1.0%LOST$12K
1.1% - 1.2%LOST$7K
1.3%+LOST$1K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-0108-0608-11
≤0.6%0.7% - 0.8%0.9% - 1.0%1.1% - 1.2%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending July 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending July 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for July 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in August 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for July 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in July 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Frequently asked questions

How did "July Inflation China - Annual" resolve?
It resolved ≤0.6% around August 10, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.8% one day before close, 7.4% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$40K across 5 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.