Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ≤1.9% at 61.6%, ahead of 2.0-2.4% at 37.5%. $91K traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
JapanEconomyFinanceInflationMacro Indicators
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ≤1.9% | 61.6% | -6.3 |
| 2.0-2.4% | 37.5% | +7.5 |
| 2.5-2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| 3.0-3.4% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 3.5-3.9% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 4.0%+ | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ≤1.9% is the favorite at 61.6%, followed by 2.0-2.4% at 37.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $91K in total and $922 in the last 24 hours, with about $11K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.