Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 2.6-2.8% at 27.5%, ahead of 2.8-3.0% at 18.3%. $74K traded across 7 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
Japaninterest ratesBondsMacro IndicatorsFinance
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6-2.8% | 27.5% | +4.0 |
| 2.8-3.0% | 18.3% | -11.9 |
| 2.4-2.6% | 14.1% | +9.6 |
| 3.0%+ | 11.0% | -14.2 |
| 2.0-2.2% | 4.8% | +0.1 |
| <2.0% | 3.1% | -0.3 |
| 2.2-2.4% | 2.9% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026. The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 2.6-2.8% is the favorite at 27.5%, followed by 2.8-3.0% at 18.3%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $74K in total and $7K in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.