Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↑165 at 32.5%, ahead of ↓150 at 7.5%. $68K traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
FinanceF XforexForeign Exchangedollar
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↑165 | 32.5% | +9.0 |
| ↓150 | 7.5% | -9.5 |
| ↓140 | 5.5% | -4.5 |
| ↓110 | 5.3% | +0.6 |
| ↑190 | 3.5% | +0.9 |
| ↑170 | 3.1% | -0.9 |
| ↑175 | 2.7% | -0.8 |
| ↑200 | 2.6% | -0.1 |
| ↓130 | 2.5% | -0.5 |
| ↑180 | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| ↓120 | 0.3% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↑165 is the favorite at 32.5%, followed by ↓150 at 7.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $68K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.