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Home / Markets / Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Live market data

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is March 31 at 14.5%, ahead of December 31 at 6.0%. $1.4M traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

14.5%
March 31 · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$1.4M
24h $0 · liquidity $23K

Closes

April 1, 2027
146 days left

IsraelLitaniLebanonPoliticsGeopolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
March 3114.5% -0.5-3.0$13611.0¢
December 316.0% 0.0-3.5$535K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%06-2308-3011-06
March 31December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying March 31 at 14% risks 14¢ to win 86¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?"?
As of November 6, 2026, March 31 is the favorite at 14.5%, followed by December 31 at 6.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$1.4M in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $23K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.