What are the odds that Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 6.6% and No at 93.5%, on $671K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$671K in total and $663 in the last 24 hours, with about $42K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Live market data

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 6.6% (-1.8 pts in 24h). $671K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

6.6%

No 93.5% · Trade →

24h move

-1.8

pts · 7d -5.2

Volume

$671K

24h $663 · liquidity $42K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Iran Geopolitics Politics Middle East Nuclear

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	6.6%	-1.8	-5.2	$671K	1.1¢
No	93.5%	+1.8	+5.2	$671K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 7% risks 7¢ to win 93¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 6.6% and No at 93.5%, on $671K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $671K in total and $663 in the last 24 hours, with about $42K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.