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Home / Markets / IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
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IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31 at 14.0%. $518K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

14.0%
December 31 · Trade →

24h move

+5.0
pts · 7d -9.0

Volume

$518K
24h $1K · liquidity $25K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

IranPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 3114.0% +5.0-9.0$160K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 14% risks 14¢ to win 86¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 14.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$518K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.