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Iran nuclear test before 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 2.5% (-0.4 pts in 24h). $315K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

2.5%
No 97.5% · Trade →

24h move

-0.4
pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$315K
24h $393 · liquidity $59K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

NuclearIranPoliticsForeign PolicyGeopolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes2.5% -0.4-3.0$315K1.8¢
No97.5% +0.4+3.0$315K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-0605-0711-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Iran nuclear test before 2027?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%, on $315K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$315K in total and $393 in the last 24 hours, with about $59K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.