How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 4 at 78.5%, ahead of 5 at 10.4%. $7.8M traded across 12 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
IsraelIranMiddle EastPoliticsGeopolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 78.5% | +2.5 |
| 5 | 10.4% | -0.9 |
| 6 | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| 7 | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| 8 | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 15+ | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 4 is the favorite at 78.5%, followed by 5 at 10.4%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $7.8M in total and $200 in the last 24 hours, with about $296K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.