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Home / Markets / How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
Resolved market scorecard

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?: result and scorecard

Resolved 1. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 30.5%. $21K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

1
resolved August 25, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

30.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$21K
7 outcomes

ScienceWeatherearthquakeEarthquakesNatural Disaster

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
1WON$6K
0LOST$5K
2LOST$5K
>5LOST$2K
5LOST$1K
3LOST$853
4LOST$791

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-1508-2008-25
102>5
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Frequently asked questions

How did "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?" resolve?
It resolved 1 around August 24, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 30.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$21K across 7 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.