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Live market data

GDP growth in 2026: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 2.0–2.5% at 50.0%, ahead of >2.5% at 48.9%. $90K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

50.0%
2.0–2.5% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d +1.5

Volume

$90K
24h $0 · liquidity $16K

Closes

January 29, 2027
84 days left

GDPEconomyEconomic PolicyRecurring

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
2.0–2.5%50.0% 0.0+1.5$21K16.0¢
>2.5%48.9% 0.0+5.7$25K17.5¢
1.5–2.0%1.7% 0.0-0.1$10K1.2¢
<0.5%0.4% 0.0-0.1$9K0.4¢
0.5–1.0%0.3% 0.00.0$18K0.1¢
1.0–1.5%0.2% 0.0-0.1$6K0.2¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%11-1305-1111-06
2.0–2.5%>2.5%1.5–2.0%<0.5%

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 2.0–2.5% at 50% risks 50¢ to win 50¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "GDP growth in 2026"?
As of November 6, 2026, 2.0–2.5% is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by >2.5% at 48.9%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 29, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$90K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $16K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Canada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?US GDP growth in Q4 2026?2026 World GDP GrowthEurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026UK Annual GDP Growth 2026UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.