Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ethiopia targets Eritrea through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM East Africa Time (EAT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ethiopia, directed at Eritrea. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Eritrea if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Eritrea, including any internal waters. Strikes against Eritrean forces or assets located outside the territory of Eritrea, including within Ethiopia, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Eritrea as of market creation will qualify. Only military actions carried out by the armed forces of Ethiopia will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces, allied armed groups, or rebel groups will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources