How did "Erdoğan out in 2025?" resolve?

It resolved No around December 31, 2025.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 98.0% one month before.

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Erdoğan out in 2025?: result and scorecard

Name: Erdoğan out in 2025? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.6%. $206K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved January 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.6%

30 days before: 98.0%

Volume

$206K

1 outcome

Geopolitics Politics World Turkey

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$206K
No	WON	$206K

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is removed from power for any length of time between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Erdoğan will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Türkiye within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Erdoğan out in 2025?" resolve?: It resolved No around December 31, 2025.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.6% one week before and 98.0% one month before.
How much was traded?: $206K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.