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Live market data

Erdoğan out by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 24.0%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 2.4%. $659K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

24.0%
December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+1.5
pts · 7d -7.0

Volume

$659K
24h $5K · liquidity $76K

Closes

December 31, 2027
421 days left

GeopoliticsTurkeyPoliticsWorldEarn 3.25%

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202724.0% +1.5-7.0$66016.0¢
December 31, 20262.4% -0.7-2.1$658K1.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-2503-1611-06
December 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 24% risks 24¢ to win 76¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Erdoğan out by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 24.0%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 2.4%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$659K in total and $5K in the last 24 hours, with about $76K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.