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Diddy released from custody in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 10.9% (-1.1 pts in 24h). $3K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

10.9%
No 89.1% · Trade →

24h move

-1.1
pts · 7d -8.1

Volume

$3K
24h $0 · liquidity $577

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

CelebritiesCultureEpsteinCourtsMusic

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes10.9% -1.1-8.1$3K16.4¢
No89.1% +1.1+8.1$3K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%04-2407-3111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 11% risks 11¢ to win 89¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Diddy released from custody in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.9% and No at 89.1%, on $3K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $577 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.