Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States enters a recession by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Recession" or "No recession"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US recession: This component is "Recession" if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, it is "No recession". Advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative and the most recent estimate for Q2 2026 was also negative, this component is "Recession". This component will remain undetermined until either one of the conditions is met or the BEA advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. If the advance estimate for Q4 2027 has not been released by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this component will be determined based on the releases available at that time. The resolution sources for this component will be official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimates of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the ou