Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the US national average price of regular gasoline reaches $4.50 or more on any date through the end of 2026. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Gas hits $4.50" or "No $4.50 gas"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Gas price: This component is "Gas hits $4.50" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above $4.50 for any date from market creation through December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it is "No $4.50 gas". This component resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified period, this component will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this component will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as pu